Monday, August 27, 2012

Is the MSCI india PER indicate something?

MSCI India - One Year Rolling Forward PER currently stands at a ~13x. MSCI india's mean PER is close to ~15x. And this mean PER is for the last 10 years. The 2007 rally PER was ~21-22x and the 2008 down turn brought it to as low as ~8x. I remember a famous market analyst saying on TV, i would sell my house and other assets to put money in equities. How i wish ..... Anyways, the chart below provides an amazing insight. MSCI India is trading at one standard deviation below its historic trading average. If technical's are to be believed then the market has great support at this level, baring the stochastic event of 2008. Does this all indicate a level to go long? In my opinion, the answer is yes. Policy inaction, rain deficit, rising fiscal deficit, earning downgrades, interest rate peak, inflation in double digits - everything seems to be factored in. Nifty has been range bound too showing some character in that range. The worse seems to be factored in - except probably a downgrade from the investment grade status. Probably that event can cause a hammering. Funds may exit, and earnings may get revised on account of cost of capital. But certainly these levels look attractive to my eye. Stock specific obviously.








Wednesday, August 22, 2012

7 Reasons Why Diamonds Are a Waste of Your Money

 7 Reasons Why Diamonds Are a Waste of Your Money - Ira Weissman

I've been in the diamond business for over 10 years. I've traveled all over the world buying and selling diamonds. I've passed through most of the major airports across the United States with about a million dollars worth of diamonds in a leather wallet stuffed inside my pants. I've bought and sold diamonds in Dubai, Mumbai, Moscow, Hong Kong, Paris, Stockholm, Tel Aviv, Madrid and Barcelona. Even today I am involved on the fringe of the diamond business, running a diamond education site helping would-be buyers.

Considering my deep personal involvement in the diamond business, my opinion might surprise you -- diamonds are a terrible waste of your money.

Here are seven reasons why:

1) The most common misconception about engagement rings is that they're some kind of ancient tradition that's deeply embedded in human history in societies around the world. This is completely false. The idea of a diamond engagement ring is roughly a century old. Guess who invented the concept? Not surprisingly, it's the same people who mined the diamonds -- the De Beers diamond syndicate. How far did De Beers go in their quest to create demand for diamonds? Edward Jay Epstein notes in his famous investigative article:
"In its 1947 strategy plan, the advertising agency strongly emphasized a psychological approach. "We are dealing with a problem in mass psychology. We seek to ... strengthen the tradition of the diamond engagement ring -- to make it a psychological necessity capable of competing successfully at the retail level with utility goods and services...." It defined as its target audience "some 70 million people 15 years and over whose opinion we hope to influence in support of our objectives." N. W. Ayer outlined a subtle program that included arranging for lecturers to visit high schools across the country. "All of these lectures revolve around the diamond engagement ring, and are reaching thousands of girls in their assemblies, classes and informal meetings in our leading educational institutions," the agency explained in a memorandum to De Beers."
I have nothing against clever marketing campaigns, but this is different. It's not like with cars, for example. You know you need a car, so the car companies compete for your attention with their ads.
In this case De Beers spent millions upon millions convincing the public that they needed to buy a product that they basically created out of thin air (thin air that they alone controlled).

2) Diamonds are not an investment -- they are a retail product like any other. People explain away spending thousands of dollars on a little stone because they mistakenly believe that the diamond is a solid investment. Are there any other investment classes where the person selling you the asset makes a minimum 10 percent profit margin (usually much more)? Most people would be lucky to get half of what they paid if they tried to sell a ring the day after they bought it. Don't fool yourself into thinking that buying a diamond is a safe place to put away money for a rainy day.

3) The diamond jewelry market is a shark tank. Even consumers that spend hours online learning about diamonds can easily get screwed by one of the many unscrupulous dealers out there (both online and bricks & mortar). There's virtually no end to the various games dealers can play to help them eke out a higher return (and therefore giving you less value).

4) Spending a month's (or two!) salary on something so impractical -- at the exact same time you are beginning your new life together as a budding family -- is a very poor financial decision. I'm not only a very experienced diamond dealer, I'm also a father of six, married for 13 years. The expenses only grow with time, they don't get easier! Believe me, five years later, you'll be wishing you had a spare five grand lying around.

5) Men, you don't need to waste a ton of money to prove your manhood. If Mark Zuckerberg can forgo the diamond engagement ring, then you can too.

6) Women, you don't need your man to waste a ton of money to prove that he loves you.

7) If your man buys you a diamond as a means to keep you quiet for another year about marriage, he probably should be dumped anyway. Find someone more grounded who is excited about building a life together with you -- not someone who's trying to continue being single while taking you along for the ride.

I have consciously left out of this list any arguments about immoral practices in the diamond business (i.e., blood diamonds, unfavorable working conditions, and child labor). The odds of buying an actual blood diamond in developed countries are extremely low. There are checks and balances in place that would make it extremely risky for a dealer to sneak something in illegally.

I don't want to be perceived as hypocritical. If one takes a stance against poor working conditions, then I believe it should be done across the board. I don't believe the diamond business is any more guilty than any other industry that does most of its production in poorer countries on the other side of the world.

Moral issues aside, there are enough reasons not to succumb to the greatest scam in history. If you hang around a group of diamond dealers for a day, there's a word you'll hear passed around quite a bit -- "illusion." As in "I lost my illusion in that diamond." "He wouldn't sell me the diamond at my asking price because he still has tons of illusion in that stone." It's diamond dealer jargon for a projection of high value onto something. When you "lose your illusion" in a diamond, it means you have succumbed to the reality that you will be selling it for less than you had hoped for. When you "have illusion" in a diamond, it means that you still believe you're going to sell it for a great price because it's such a knockout stone.

It's rather amazing that the very people who buy and sell millions of dollars of diamonds a year acknowledge the ephemeral nature of their value at the same time that their lives are completely invested in them.

Ladies and Gentlemen, please take the red pill. Don't believe in the illusion. Pass this article on to your friends. Share it, Like it, Tweet it. Lets start a new movement together.

If you find yourself not being able to fight the social pressure to get a diamond ring, it's OK. There are many like you. It's not a simple thing to resist. Just please do yourself a favor and speak to an expert who can help you make sure that at the very least you spend as little as possible on the illusion and still come away with something that serves its purpose.

Ira Weissman is a diamond industry veteran with a decade of experience at one of the world's largest diamond polishers. He has traveled the world buying and selling diamonds and now dedicates his time to helping consumers make the most of their diamond buying decisions. He has been featured on Anderson Cooper, CNBC, and has been quoted by MarketWatch, The Village Voice, and BankRate. Visit Truth About Diamonds to educate yourself about diamonds.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Chp 1: It can only get better - Tony Gordon

Page 4, paragh 4

"How fortunate i was to have burned my bridges. I couldnt go back. I was totally committed. It is the first essential for success. There can be no middle of the road. Commitment, for us, is like virginity - we either have it or we dont. If we walk in the middle of the road we will be hit by the truck of mediocrity."

Page 6, paragh 3

"successful people discipline themselves to do the things that mediocre people dont like to do"

Page 6, paragh 4

"the discipline to do what is needed to succeed everyday is the basic difference between success and mediocrity"

Page 9, paragh 3

"Success does not come cheaply. Rejection is the price which must be paid to achieve our goals."

Page 13, paragh 2

"Success comes when we have learned to lose the hard fought battles and have the courage to come back and fight again."

Page 13, Paragh 4

"It is our character and not our contacts that determine our success"

Friday, August 17, 2012

Hey aamir khan! You forgot to add ...

Aamir Khan in the movie Ishq said - "Life mein teen cheezon ke peeche khabi nahi bhagna chahiye ... bus, train aur chokri ... ek gayi doosri aati hai"

Dear Aamir, add stocks to that list!

Quotes - Aejas

"Anything less than what is truly your best effort, isn't worth it anyways" - aejas

"One destiny.. one life.. live it up.." - aejas

"Pain is inevitable.. suffering is optional.." - aejas

Monday, August 6, 2012

My adorable grandfather - Extracts from my life

24.07.2012
My dear Aejas.

With all love, regard and confidence in you I am sending this article. You are intelligent and hard working. You are going to succeed.
Most of the renowned people Gandhiji, Einstein, Graham Bell, etc has failed more times and yet succeeded.
My dear, dont get disheartened. You are close to your God.

Yours always,
Dadu and dadi


           Dont quit
When things go wrong, as they sometimes will,
When the road you're trudging seems all uphill,
When the funds are low and the debts are high,
And you want to smile, but you have to sigh,
When care is pressing you down a bit,
Rest, if you must, but don't you quit.

Life is queer with its twists and turns,
As every one of us sometimes learns,
And many a failure turns about,
When he might have won had he stuck it out;
Don't give up though the pace seems slow--
You may succeed with another blow.

Often the goal is nearer than,
It seems to a faint and faltering man,
Often the struggler has given up,
When he might have captured the victor's cup,
And he learned too late when the night slipped down,
How close he was to the golden crown.

Success is failure turned inside out--
The silver tint of the clouds of doubt,
And you never can tell how close you are,
It may be near when it seems so far,
So stick to the fight when you're hardest hit--
It's when things seem worst that you must not quit.

- Author unknown

Management insights: Extracts from my life

In my opinion, management is about knowing the effective art of outsourcing your work to responsible people, ensuring that responsible people know of the heightened level of responsibility, being with people and doing what it takes for them to trust you, and waiting patiently for more work to come by that requires to be effectively outsourced.

Nadir - Extracts from my life

The wonderful part about hitting nadir or rock bottom is that there is only 1 way left to go! - aejas lakhani

Discovery of love - Extracts from my life

After some introspection, i have discovered what they call as "love at first sight". My first love undoubtedly remains a 2 stroke engine motorcycle and second love remains equity markets.

Quote on effort - Extracts from my life

Anything less than what is truly your best effort, isn't worth it anyways - aejas lakhani

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Motorbike engines!

One of the best animated images of the working of a motorbike engine is there on the link below:
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/motorcycle1.htm


Quote: Adventure

Adrenaline and stress of an adventure are better than a thousand peaceful days - Paulo Coelho